Breaking Out the Crystal Ball for some Division and Award Predictions

Breaking Out the Crystal Ball for some Division and Award Predictions

Time sure does fly when you’re having fun. We’re past the midway point of the 2013 season and the All-Star Game is less than a week away. As with any season there have been surprises, disappointments, phenomenal rookies taking their place on the grand stage, and controversy. This column is more what lies ahead than what we’ve left behind, as I will take a chance on predicting division winners, a World Series champion, and award winners based on what’s happened so far.

 

AL EAST: Tampa Bay Rays

Before the season started I predicted Tampa to win the AL East and right now I see no reason to think otherwise. Because of injuries on Toronto and New York and lack of quality pitching for Baltimore I see this division ending up as a two team race between Boston and Tampa. Jon Lester has looked abysmal lately for Boston, where as Tampa is getting their ace, David Price, back from injury. The pitching is rounding into form, the bullpen is improving, and thanks to Desmond Jennings, one of the hottest players in the game, Tampa has fought their way back into contention. Their great play will continue and with Joe Maddon at the helm this team will be October bound.

AL CENTRAL: Detroit Tigers

The Indians and Royals have played well enough to hang around but Detroit has too much fire power and will pull away with a big second half run. Justin Verlander hasn’t quite been himself this season but Max Scherzer has more than made up for it. Scherzer is having a career year and proving just how good he truly is.

AL WEST: Oakland Athletics

The Oakland A’s are continuing to show that last season was no fluke. Despite their best pitcher being Bartolo Colon and a lineup of names a lot of casual fans wouldn’t recognize, they continue to play fantastic baseball. The key with Oakland is their depth. They truly are a 1-25 team as every guy contributes and plays a significant role. They will hold off the Rangers and claim their second division title in a row.

Wild Cards: Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers

Based on their first half play and the fact that I don’t see a team from the AL Central contending for a wild card spot it will be these two teams in a one game showdown. The Yankees are too old and injured, the Orioles don’t have enough pitching, and the Angels, well, let’s not even get into that disappointment of a team. If Boston and Texas were to win their divisions I really don’t see any way that Tampa and Oakland aren’t the wild cards. So as far as I’m concerned these AL teams will be in the playoffs for sure, it’s just a question of whether they finish 1 or 2 in the East and West.

NL EAST: Washington Nationals

This prediction is based more on Atlanta being a .500 team after the hot start to the season then it is about Washington becoming a second half juggernaut. Even with one of the worst starters in baseball in Dan Haren, I see Washington making enough of a run and playing well enough to overtake Atlanta. The Braves can’t hit and there’s nothing to show that it’s going to change for them. Add in the fact that Fredi Gonzalez could very well over work his bullpen in the second half, I don’t think Atlanta will even make the playoffs.

NL CENTRAL: St. Louis Cardinals

The best team in baseball in the best top heavy division in baseball will continue to play fantastic baseball in the second half and earn the division crown. Led by a killer lineup and a pitching staff with more depth than an Olympic pool, the Cardinals have torn through the competition putting up offensive numbers that are unheard of. The Pirates are on their tails but there’s too much talent and experience here to lose the lead.

NL WEST: Los Angeles Dodgers

Thanks to rookie sensation Yasiel Puig and the 1-2 punch of Kershaw and Greinke, the Dodgers will taste the postseason again. The NL West is the mediocre division this year with every team playing just bad enough to keep all the others in the race, and lucky for them someone has to win the division. None of these teams should be allowed near the postseason given the records and performances of other divisions teams but thankfully for the Dodgers and their fans they will be the best of the worst.

Wild Cards: Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds

Who would’ve thought a division could produce two wild cards this year and it not be the AL East. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are clearly better than all the other NL teams and will be doing battle in the one game showdown when the playoffs start. For Pittsburgh it’s going to be a wild and crazy October as the 20 year drought will officially be coming to an end. Cincinnati has answered a lot of questions in the first half, mostly surrounding Shin Shoo Choo and his ability to leadoff and play centerfield, and will be rewarded with a postseason berth.

Playoff Predictions

Texas defeats Boston and Pittsburgh defeats Cincinnati in the one game playoffs.

ALDS/NLDS

Detroit defeats Texas in 4 games

Oakland defeats Tampa in 5 games

St. Louis defeats Los Angeles in 4 games

Pittsburgh defeats Washington in 4 games

ALCS/NLCS

Detroit defeats Oakland in 6 games

St. Louis defeats Pittsburgh in 5 games

World Series

St. Louis defeats Detroit in 6 games

 

AWARDS

 

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera is having another season for the ages and will claim his second consecutive MVP. What he will not be doing however is claiming his second consecutive Triple Crown. Counting out Miguel Cabrera to do anything is usually not a smart move but I feel Chris Davis will just barely beat him out in the Home Run race. It will definitely be exciting though getting to watch the greatest hitter in the game chase history and take his place among the all-time greats.

 

NL MVP: Yadier Molina

Molina finally gets all the recognition and praise for being one of the best all-around players in the game today. He has been a huge reason for the Cardinals offensive success as well as managing a pitching staff that just continually throws arms out there. Defensively he has been the best catcher in baseball for years but he has taken his offensive game to another level and deserves to be rewarded.

 

AL Cy Young: Max Scherzer

The best pitcher on the best staff in the American League has run over the competition all year and he shows no signs of slowing down. This year he has been able to put it all together and finally show the complete package and what scouts have raved about for years. Whatever success Detroit achieves this year it will be because Scherzer pitched them through a lot of big moments and spots.

 

NL Cy Young: Adam Wainwright

With all due respect to guys like Matt Harvey, Clayton Kershaw, and Patrick Corbin this is Wainwright’s award to lose. Coming back from Tommy John Surgery the way he has and putting up the numbers he currently is, it’s remarkable. He has given up only 14 walks on the year so his command and control are extraordinary. Add in the fact he is 5^th in strikeouts, 3^rd in ERA, and tied for first in wins and he has the award locked up barring any setbacks or collapses.

 

AL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin

Joe Maddon and Jim Leyland definitely deserve some consideration but as far as I’m concerned Melvin wins his second consecutive MOTY award. Last year it was won based on the surprise season and comeback the A’s made but this year it’s about their ability to continue that momentum and show it was no fluke. The A’s are one of the deepest teams in the league so for Melvin to be able to juggle lineups and keep everyone happy, should automatically give him the win.

 

NL Manager of the Year: Clint Hurdle

This award is the toughest to predict because there are two men who are more than deserving (Mike Matheny being the other). If Matheny were to win it over Hurdle no one would be disappointed. Being a second year manager and accomplishing what he has is unheard of but Pittsburgh breaking a 20 year drought of losing seasons and playoff appearances should give Hurdle that little bit extra in voting.

 

So there you have it. This is how I see things playing out for the remainder of the year, and if my prognosticating skills are anywhere near what they usually are, then it’s a safe bet none of this will happen.

Taking a Look at the MLB All-Star Selections

 

Taking a Look at the MLB All-Star Selections

It’s that time of year again, as the All-Star squads have been announced and surprises and snubs rule the day. This year like many others before it, is surrounded by the storyline of controversy. Who deserves a spot? Whose spot was robbed? The typical questions baseball fans and analysts ask themselves right after July 4^th every year. You could set a clock to it. Why does controversy always surround the proceedings? Well, the answer is simple, the voting process is flawed. Fans being able to vote for the starters, especially given the fact that online they can vote up to 35 times per E-Mail account, lets the bias shine through. We all know that people have multiple E-Mail accounts as is, never mind being crazy enough to set up new ones just to vote their favorite players in. The game will always need fan interaction, but the process and execution needs to change. Combine that with managers who will always show bias towards their own guys when rounding out the roster as well and you’re stuck with a flawed system. My suggestion would be to abolish the whole vote for the starters as step one of the process. Fans vote for All-Stars, it counts towards 50 % of the final total. Give managers and players 25% of the vote and you end up with a roster that is complete and locked in. From there, eliminate the final man fan voting. With the completed rosters set, then you turn it over to the fans to vote for who starts. Lessening the number of votes and the pool of players from which they get to choose would help fairly balance the process. Now, my theory, just like all others thrown out there can probably have holes poked in it but at the end of the day, anything is better than the current structure.

As far as the rosters go there are some definite problems. Let’s begin with the starters. In the American League, J.J. Hardy, while a fine player, deserves to be nowhere near the team. Jhonny Peralta, who was placed on the team, is having a better year, as is Jed Lowrie of Oakland, which also happens to be a first place team. How a first place team with the second best record in the American League only gets one representative, and that representative isn’t even close to being the most worthy on the team is criminal; more on that later though. In the National League there are a few more problems with the starters chosen. At first base, Joey Votto was voted in, and while he is deserving of an All-Star nod, Paul Goldschmidt should be the starter. He is doing better than Votto in basically every category other than walks and on base percentage. He should be rewarded for the season he is having. At second base, Votto’s Reds teammate Brandon Phillips got the starting nod, but unlike Votto, a case could be made for Phillips to not even be on the team. He started out the year hot and was putting up good numbers but has cooled down significantly since then. Matt Carpenter’s stats put Phillips’ to shame but since Phillips is very well liked because of his social media presence and interaction with fans, he wins the popularity contest. At shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, another popular player and one deserving of a nod gets the start, but reserve Jean Segura should. The Brewers have not played well at all but Segura, along with Carlos Gomez, who should be starting in the outfield are the lone bright spots in a dark season. They should not be punished because their team is horrible and because no one knows anything about Milwaukee baseball other than Ryan Braun. Along with Gomez starting over Bryce Harper, some may argue that Carlos Beltran should not be starting in favor of Andrew McCutchen. I however, will not be making that argument. I personally feel that Beltran is deserving.

On the reserve side of things is where things get much more controversial as far as the American League is concerned. The Chicago White Sox have no business getting two pitchers into the game. Pick one, and the other spot should go to Matt Moore of Tampa Bay or even more deserving Grant Balfour of Oakland. Balfour hasn’t blown a save all year and again, IS ON A FIRST PLACE TEAM!!! His steadiness and reliability are a lot more important to game outcomes than Jesse Crain’s in Chicago. I’m not as upset about the three American League catchers as some may be because really there was nothing that could be done. Mauer is having a fine season and deserves to be on the team as does Salvador Perez. Add in the fact that Castro is as well plus someone needing to represent the Astros and it’s all good in my book. Torii Hunter is another player like Phillips in the NL who started out hot and has cooled significantly. I would take him off the team and go with one of the other three third baseman having great years (Donaldson, Longoria, or Beltre), or with Tampa first baseman James Loney. In the National League I really don’t have any complaints. Marco Scutaro caused a few rumblings but considering what that guy has done since coming to San Francisco he deserves the recognition.

In the fan vote I have one complaint on the National League side. Yasiel Puig is going to win in a landslide. I’ve already covered how I feel he is a deserving All-Star so that isn’t my gripe. I just feel that the guys he’s up against, when taking the casual baseball fan into account and not the hardcore watchers of the game, they stand no chance of winning. On the American League side I still feel like it’s going to be revealed that 5 right handed relievers is a joke. That honestly cannot be the 5 best choices to choose from. Where are the third basemen? Where is Loney? Where is Gardner? Where is Nava? I could go on and on. This may be the worst atrocity in All-Star history making people choose from these guys. Don’t get me wrong I have nothing against them and they are having fine seasons but again, as far as the casual fan, what the hell is the difference between 5 right handed middle relievers and why should they care? Considering that the voting process is so flawed and shows no signs of changing, the better question may be why should anyone care?