2013
AL East Preview: Lots of Questions Surrounding the Most Competitive Division in
Baseball
The American
League East over the last few years has been considered the toughest division
in baseball by many pundits, including yours truly. Since 2007 the division has
sent a wildcard team into the playoffs. Although the addition of a second wild
card team beginning last season takes some of the luster off that
accomplishment. This season will be no exception when it comes to
competitiveness. The last place team in the division could very well finish
with a better record than the fourth place finishers in the other divisions. If
there’s one thing this division knows it’s beating up on everyone else. Against
all other teams last year the division went a combined 240-210, better than
every other division against all competition. Now let’s take a look at all the
teams in the order I see them finishing the year.
Final Standings
Tampa Bay 90-72
New York Yankees
88-74
Toronto Blue
Jays 84-78
Boston Red Sox
79-83
Baltimore
Orioles 77-85
1. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72)
The team that
never seems to go away despite the personnel losses will be back and as good as
ever I feel. They match their win total from a year ago but this time it will
be good enough for a division win and a playoff spot as opposed to a third
place finish. They may not have as much star power as last year but with Joe
“The Mad Scientist” Maddon at the helm the team is in good hands. Maddon is a
phenomenal tactician and there’s arguably no manager in baseball that gets more
out of his players. His work mixing and matching the bullpen according to
matchups is extraordinary, and his laid back approach and themed road trips
make him a manager that guys love playing for. He is never one to shy away from
a hit and run or shift his defense in a way never seen before, but that is what
makes him unique. He realizes his team’s strengths and weaknesses and plays to
those strengths as well as anyone.
Trading away an
innings eater like James Shields will cause a slight step back for the staff
but with young guys like Hellickson, Moore, Cobb, and the reigning AL Cy Young
Award Winner David Price, there’s a lot of talent left in the rotation. The
bullpen certainly isn’t otherworldly but there are a lot of serviceable arms
including the closer Fernando Rodney who finished second in the American League
in saves. Kelly Johnson will start the year at second base while Ben Zobrist
will play either left or right field and Matt Joyce controls the other outfield
spot. This will not last long though as stud outfielder Wil Myers is waiting in
the wings. Tampa will keep him in Triple A to start the year to continue his
outfield development as he only has 93 games of experience playing there, but his
offensive talents won’t keep him down long. Tampa will only be able to delay
the arbitration clock for so long.
2. New York Yankees (88-74)
First things
first, there’s something I have to get out of the way. I am a diehard pinstripe
supporting Yankee fan. With that said, my being a fan has not inflated what I
feel this team will do this season. Everyone can point to Granderson’s injury
to start the season, Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli being the catching
tandem, Kevin Youkilis joining the team and not thinking he can help since, you
know, he came from Boston, and most importantly what will Derek Jeter and
Mariano Rivera contribute coming off their serious injuries. The Yankee haters
are abundant enough, but for the first time in a long time, the Yankee faithful
are echoing the same sentiments. I’m here to tell all Yankee fans not to worry
because what we do have is a plethora of good, experienced pitching that will
carry this team.
A rotation
fronted by CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, and core four member Andrew Eugene
Pettitte will be more than enough to carry this team, and that’s before
throwing in names like Hughes, Nova, Phelps and Pineda. Now granted Nova and
Hughes had mediocre to poor seasons last year, but the mistakes are correctable
and they can and should rebound. Nova has great breaking stuff but he does need
to better command and control his fastball, which at his young age is something
that can be done. Hughes had some bad luck with the long ball last year
finishing in a tie for second place in home runs given up with 35. Pitching at
Yankee Stadium when you’re a fly ball pitcher can be a recipe for disaster, but
Hughes actually performed better at home than he did on the road. Add in the
extra incentive of this being a contract year for Hughes and he has all the
motivation to be better this year. In addition to some good starting pitching
the Yankees have a good bullpen that Joey Binders maximizes well. Many may
accuse him of over managing which, of course he is guilty of at times, but what
manager isn’t. The arms will keep the Yankees in the race.
The offense will
take a hit for sure. These aren’t your daddies Yankees scoring over 800 runs in
a season but this is far from an impotent lineup. With talent such as Gardner,
Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, Youkilis, Ichiro, and Granderson when he comes back,
this team cannot be counted out. Look for the Yankees to be more dependent on
small ball and less reliant on the home run, which should be music to diehard
fans ears. Hit and runs, bunting over runners, and straight steals with Gardner
and Ichiro will be a big part of the team’s game this year. Add to that walks
and pitch counts being about as high as usual if not more so with the addition
of Youkilis and a full season of Gardner, and this is a team who may not be as
“sexy” as usual, but it doesn’t mean they can’t be effective.
3. Toronto
Blue Jays (84-78)
The biggest
players in the game of offseason movers and shakers are banking on their
aggressive methods to catapult them back to the top of the division and a playoff
spot after a long drought of twenty years. Vegas oddsmakers have installed the
Blue Jays as favorites to not only win the AL East but also the pennant and
World Series. To say expectations are high in Maple Leaf Country is an understatement.
I however, feel these expectations won’t be reached as there are too many
questions surrounding this team to consider them a lock for anything.
The addition of
R.A. Dickey was a great move as he will be an innings eater and a stable force
atop the rotation. The often overlooked Mark Buehrle will do the same from the
left side providing a good 1-2 punch. The rest of the rotation however is
filled with question marks. Josh Johnson is always good when healthy, but
that’s the thing about him, he can never seem to stay healthy. Ricky Romero was
atrocious last season and has never been a great pitcher, and Brandon Morrow
also has an injury history and a strikeout rate that declined drastically over
the past two seasons. In addition to the rotation question marks the bullpen is
also suspect. There are no arms that put fear into a hitter because they throw
hard or have great stuff that’s tough to hit. Toronto needs to hope they aren’t
involved in a lot of bullpen games so that down the stretch the wear and tear
on the arms won’t hurt them.
When talking
about the Toronto offense there are some questions there as well. Can Jose
Reyes, a player with a history of leg problems, be dependable enough playing 91
of his games on artificial turf? Besides the 81 home games, the Jays play 10
games at Tropicana Field in Tampa. Jose Bautista is a great player and should
put up some good numbers now that he has protection in the lineup with Edwin
Encarnacion, who is coming off a career year. Other than those two players and the
questions surrounding Reyes, can this team count on a clean Melky Cabrera to
produce anywhere near as well as he did when cheating? Can they turn their free
swinging ways around and become more patient at the plate? I don’t think they
can but if I’m wrong, which wouldn’t be too surprising, and things break right
for them, they very well could be the best team in the game and hoisting the
Commissioner’s trophy come October.
4. Boston Red Sox (79-83)
The chicken and
beer boys from Beantown are back and under new management this year. However,
they will face the same result as last season in that they won’t be making a
playoff appearance. They can look forward to a fourth place division finish as
opposed to last place if my predictions hold up, so there’s at least that. John
Farrell is back, now managing, after previously being the team’s pitching coach
from 2007-2010. He’s a much better fit for the team than Bobby Valentine was,
and these players will definitely respond much better to him and play much
better for him. There’s a lot of work that needs to be done with this team and
they could be fighting for the division title again in a few years but for this
year they’ll have to make due with marginal improvement.
The addition of
Joel Hanrahan could pay off as an excellent move; it all just depends on how he
handles the pressure of the Boston media. He’s a very good closer, but many
good players have wilted to the pressures of playing in Boston. As far as the
rest of the team, they will go as far as the pitching staff and Jacoby Ellsbury
take them. The only problem with that is the amount of injury prone and or
inconsistent players they’ll be asking to carry them. John Lester, Clay
Buchholz, and John Lackey have all had their fair share of time on the disabled
list. Jacoby Ellsbury can be a very good player when healthy, as evidenced by
his 2011 season where he finished as runner up in MVP voting, won his first
Gold Glove, and won a Silver Slugger award. Mike Napoli, who signed this
offseason as a free agent will benefit from the Green Monster and also not
having to catch but he is a bit of a free swinger so he will rack up a good
amount of strikeouts also. David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia are back and that’s
all I will say about them out of pure baseball fan hatred.
5. Baltimore Orioles (77-85)
The Baltimore
Orioles were one of the biggest surprises in baseball last season. This team,
which historically has done well starting out and then flamed out as the season
has gone on, flipped the script and held on for the entire season and had their
first playoff berth since 1997. They return virtually the same team who made
that memorable September run and marched into the playoffs. The only exception,
the team hopes, will be the full time return of a healthy Brian Roberts.
As evidenced by
my predicting a last place finish and a sub .500 record, I feel this team will
come crashing back down to Earth. They can still be somewhat competitive
because there is some young talent in place but they won’t come close to a
playoff spot. The season last year was memorable but the numbers this team put
up could never be duplicated. They went 29-9 in one run games and 16-2 in
extra-inning games, winning their last 16 straight. These numbers are astounding
and show how just how mind boggling the season was.
Having a healthy
Brian Roberts back will allow the team to extend the lineup and move Nick
Markakis out of the leadoff spot, although it was a spot he performed admirably
in. The team lacks a big time power hitting bat in the middle of the order but
with guys like Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and Chris Davis they should get by
well enough. Having a full season of Manny Machado’s services will only help
strengthen his potential and show Charm City there is a building block for the
future manning the hot corner.
The pitching is
where I see the team taking the biggest step back. The young arms who burst
onto the scene and the veterans who had career years will all have Buck
Showalter pulling his hair out all year. Their return to normalcy will show the
fluke that last year was and the Orioles will return to their rightful spot of
last place.
