Appreciating the Underappreciated

Appreciating the Underappreciated

 

 

If I were to ask you to name the team with the second best run differential in the majors, I would be willing to bet that there’s a good chance most couldn’t do it. Everyone knows the Oakland A’s are blowing the rest of the majors out of the water but that second team is somewhat trickier. If you guessed the Seattle Mariners then you my friend are very good at this game.

Now that you know the answer, the reasons why this is so could be coming into your head at a feverish pace. They have a rotation anchored by two of the best pitchers in baseball never mind the AL, they finally have a top tier middle of the order bat in Robinson Cano who has shown a penchant for driving in runs, and they have the best bullpen in baseball. All are very good reasons and all are definitely part of the equation. However, there’s one variable missing from the equation and that’s Kyle Seager.

Seager has always been a guy in the past that put up decent numbers considering half of his games were played at Safeco Field, but you always felt he could be so much better if he just got away from that cavernous pitcher’s paradise. This season not only is he having one of his better seasons, but he is producing at a far better clip at home than he is on the road.

Eleven of Seager’s twelve home runs have come at Safeco Field. 37 of his 54 RBIs have come at home. He is hitting .341 in the not so usually friendly confines of Safeco. He’s batting a Mendoza like .201 on the road but has five more doubles and four less walks away from Safeco. So how can a guy who is not a big power threat be hitting for power so phenomenally at a ballpark where power goes to die?

The answer I believe comes back to Cano. Seager has been steadily batting cleanup behind Cano for a while and every team that faces Seattle is not going to let Cano beat them. So while Cano is batting is .323 he only has 4 HRs and 43 RBIs. Those are very un-Cano like numbers as the All-Star Break approaches. However, he is having such an effect on this team and this lineup that Seager (the second best hitter on the team) is benefitting tremendously batting behind him.

Teams are much more willing to make a mistake with Seager than Cano but that should change real soon. He is a good enough hitter that if you force him to beat you he is going to do just that. The key for Seattle though is for their 1-2 hitters (currently Endy Chavez and James Jones) to keep getting on base and force teams to have to pitch to Cano and Seager. Lately that has been happening but with the Mariners we all know how quickly that can change.

Seattle does need a middle of the order right handed bat to help balance out the very lefty heavy order they currently have. Maybe that bat is Corey Hart when he is ready to return or maybe it’s acquired through a trade but with the best bullpen in the game, a very good rotation once Paxton and Walker return, and a potent combination of Cano and Seager this could be a very dangerous team down the stretch. Knowing full well how big a part pitching and defense play in winning a championship, the rest of baseball may have to travel the Yellow Brick Road through Emerald City to reach the Promised Land.

Almost Halfway Home Part 2

Almost Halfway Home

 

Yesterday we took a look at the American League and where things stand at the almost halfway point of the season. Today we will take a look at the National League. The NL in my opinion is a lot easier to figure out as there are six teams, two in each division, that are clearly better than the rest of the pack. The five playoff teams will all come from this group with one being left out in the cold. Let’s take a look at what’s happened thus far and what to expect going forward.

 

NL EAST

-Something about the East divisions is breeding mediocrity this season. Every team is still in the hunt but that unfortunately isn’t because of skill, more so because the two teams who are clearly the best in the division have failed to distance themselves. Come the second half I see that changing and Washington and Atlanta will separate themselves from the pack. The Nationals have dealt with a myriad of injuries but they are starting to get back the reinforcements needed. Gio Gonzalez just returned from a DL stint, Bryce Harper will be beginning his rehab assignment soon, and Wilson Ramos should be back any day now. Matt Williams will be faced with a tough challenge when his squad returns to full strength as he’s going to need to find at bats for a lot of guys and positions for them to play. Ryan Zimmerman has moved to left field and played well, and is also much more comfortable out there, allowing Anthony Rendon to move to third base (his natural position). When Harper comes back what do you do with Zimmerman? Playing him at third is a liability because of his arm and also moving Rendon back to second midway through the year could hurt his performance. So if you don’t make that move do you play Zimmerman at first? Adam LaRoche has been one of the best hitters on the team and taking him out of the lineup would be insane. Williams says it’s a good problem to have but I’ll be honest, I don’t want to be in his shoes making those decisions. Atlanta just recently lost their third pitcher to a season ending injury but luckily for them they sent Alex Wood down to the minors to get stretched out with the intention of starting. The decision to sit Dan Uggla despite his pay has finally been made and Tommy LaStella has been awesome. Giving them much better hitting and defense along with a top of the order spark plug has breathed some new life into the Braves. Speaking of awesome, Evan Gattis has played out of this world and should be making the trip to Minnesota for the All-Star Game. We all knew Gattis could swing the bat and be an offensive force but the question remained how he would perform defensively when catching every day. Well he’s passed that test and put those questions to rest. Is he an all world defender? Of course not, but he is playing well enough that he isn’t a liability to the team in the field. The Miami Marlins have been a pleasant surprise thanks in large part to a healthy Giancarlo Stanton and run producing machine Casey McGehee. Also, despite losing all world starter Jose Fernandez the rotation has been solid. Recent call up Andrew Heaney has shown that he is a player to watch in the future and pairing him up with a healthy Jose Fernandez will make this team a contender. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are both a non-contending mess so we’re going to kill two birds with one stone here. Both teams need changes at GM and a radical shift in drafting and development. The Mets future is brighter due to all their pitching talent but that talent needs to step up on the big league level and produce. Ruben Amaro Jr. somehow still has a job which is an amazing feat considering how terrible he has been as of late. However, given how terrible and dirty the city of Philly and its fans are it’s a good thing to see them suffer through this bad stretch. 

 

NL CENTRAL

-Coming into the season everyone predicted that the St. Louis Cardinals would run away with the NL Central and that it would be their division to lose. The Milwaukee Brewers heard this and collectively said “not so fast.” With excellent pitching, the return of Ryan Braun, and the national breakout of Jonathan Lucroy, the Brewers looked poised to take the division and leave St. Louis fighting for a wild card spot. The Cardinals are too good to miss the playoffs but all season they’ve sort of sputtered along not being able to go on a run like we are accustomed to seeing from them. Recent injuries and DL stints for Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia won’t help matters but there is enough depth here to keep them afloat for the time being. The Pittsburgh Pirates were the story of the season last year but this year has been a completely different story. The starting pitching has been nowhere near the level it was a year ago and neither is Jason Grilli who has been demoted out of the closer role due to ineffectiveness. The Pirates have found a lineup fixture for years to come in uber prospect Gregory Polanco. Polanco is going to be a fantastic player and will form arguably the best outfield in all of baseball with Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen. Cincinnati has been a disappointment as well, underperforming compared to recent years. The only bright spot for them this year has been Cy Young frontrunner Johnny Cueto. With his Luis Tiant delivery and ability to get guys out despite pitching in the very hitter friendly Great American Ballpark, Cueto is very comfortably in the lead for the hardware come season’s end. The Chicago Cubs have stated all along that next year was the year they were going to spend money and have the kids in the farm system ready to play so this year was another throwaway for the Wrigley faithful. However, odds are the team will be trading both Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, which should fetch them some decent returns to add to the mix. Add in the continued improvement of Anthony Rizzo, and the forthcoming promotion of masher Kris Bryant and the hope is there in Chicago.

 

NL WEST

-Before the season began I predicted the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the NL West and be a dark horse contender for the World Series. Boy, I couldn’t have been more wrong. Thanks to terrible play by everyone not named Goldschmidt or Montero that isn’t going to happen. The Diamondbacks were hit by the injury bug also but so have plenty of other teams that are playing through it much better. They gave up a lot of the wrong talent for guys they described as “gritty” fitting the mold of overrated manager Kirk Gibson and it has blown up in their face. Colorado is getting an MVP like season from Troy Tulowitzki who has managed to stay healthy. Their offensive numbers at home are unfathomable but their pitching numbers at home or on the road are not good at all. Tulowitzki has enough talent to keep the team relevant down the stretch but getting a wild card spot won’t happen. The San Diego Padres just recently fired their GM Josh Byrnes and with good reason because this team cannot hit and its “star” players would welcome the Mendoza Line with open arms. This is a team that may need to take the Houston Astros approach and just gut the whole team and farm system in order to start over. The two teams left in the division and virtual locks for the postseason (Giants and Dodgers), are going to be involved in a dogfight throughout the summer for control of the division. San Francisco has performed well above expectations, whereas the Dodgers have performed well below expectations but there is so much talent, especially on the pitching end for Los Angeles that they can still manage to stay in the race. Buster Posey has come to life as of late and Michael Morse has been a great signing for San Fran. GM Brian Sabean is known to be aggressive and go all in if he has to at the trade deadline (see Beltran, Carlos), and the results are mixed but the effort deserves applause. Look for this team to be a contender for David Price if Tampa trades him, which I think they will. Yasiel Puig is proving he is not a one year wonder and he is the barometer of the Dodgers through and through. As Puig goes, this team goes. They have great pitching and are starting to get positive contributions from Matt Kemp and Dee Gordon who looks like he has figured things out and is showing the talent we’ve all known was there.

As far as how I see things playing out in the National League, I truly do think it comes down to the six teams mentioned above. Five of them will make up the playoff field, it’s just a question of where they finish. One very good team will be left out but the race down the stretch will be an exciting one for sure.

NL East- Washington

NL Central- Milwaukee

NL West- Los Angeles

Wild Cards- San Francisco and St. Louis (just barely over Atlanta)

I see the Cardinals taking the Wild Card Game and moving on to face the Dodgers. Los Angeles will defeat St. Louis in the NLDS and Milwaukee will take care of Washington in a very tough hard fought series. The Dodgers will make the World Series an all West Coast affair and go on to face Oakland in the Fall Classic. The Dodgers would be a tough matchup for Oakland but I have to stick with my original prediction and say the Oakland Athletics will be taking home the Commissioner’s Trophy.

Almost Halfway Home

Almost Halfway Home

 

 

Time sure does fly when you’re having fun. We are somehow crazily approaching the halfway point of the 2014 MLB season and like most years we really haven’t figured much out when it comes to how things will end up come October. We’re going to take this opportunity to look at every division and how things are going thus far, and also predicting how things will turn out. Today we will look at the American League and tomorrow take a look at the National League.

AL EAST

-The AL East is one of the more confusing divisions in baseball. We know for sure that the Tampa Bay Rays are out of the race and Boston very well could be if they can’t get things together and start getting production from their outfield. Boston having a World Series hangover is certainly understandable but for now as much as I would like to count them out I can’t. This looks like it could very well be a three team race. The current division leaders are the Toronto Blue Jays, but both the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees are on their tail. Every one of these teams have glaring holes and are the definition of mediocre but someone has to win the division, even if they play like no one wants to. Toronto just got hit hard by the injury bug as Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie are going to miss some time. Lawrie most likely more than Bautista. These injuries hurt a very good offense and a middle of the pack pitching staff. When Toronto was completely healthy they were the Major League version of a Peyton Manning team. Who cares how much they gave up because odds are they’re going to score more. If Toronto can swing a trade for Jeff Samardzija and get everyone healthy they could be the team that starts to run away with the division. Baltimore is being carried by Nelson Cruz and his 23 home runs and 60 RBI. Chris Davis, Manny Machado, J.J. Hardy and whomever they trot out there to play 2nd base have been inconsistent and playing far below their career lines. Cruz shouldn’t be able to keep up this production, so unless those guys step up and start showing improvement this team will fall out of the race in the second half. The Yankees have been somewhat of a surprise in the respect that they have a negative run differential but do have a winning record. Their problems are the same ones that were a concern at the beginning of the season. Their infield is atrocious, especially Derek Jeter. I know it’s sacreligious to speak ill of The Captain but he is both an offensive and defensive liability. Kelly Johnson may be the worst fielder in the history of the game and now that Yangervis Solarte came crashing back to Earth they have very few offensive weapons that are playing well. The good things as far as the Yankees are concerned this season are their bullpen, more specifically Adam Warren, Shawn Kelley, and the closer in waiting Dellin Betances. These guys have performed fantastically when given the opportunity to have a lead. Also, the Rookie of the Year and frontrunner for the Cy Young Award Masahiro Tanaka has eclipsed any expectations that may have been placed on him by management and fans. Every fifth day when he starts is appointment television and a game the Yankees are expected to win. I see the Yankees staying in contention for the division due to the overall mediocrity of the East and a deadline deal that will help them stay afloat. If Toronto cannot swing a trade for Samardzija or gets hit harder by injuries then this will be the Yankees division to lose. Otherwise, Drake will be able to party at the Rogers Centre with his hometown team and new favorite team.

AL CENTRAL

-The AL Central is arguably the most competitive division in the game this season. The Tigers, Royals, and Indians are at the top as expected but Minnesota and Chicago are not rolling over for anyone and are playing very competitively. The White Sox found a revelation in Jose Abreu who has torn the American League apart with his power stroke. He is among the league leaders in home runs and RBIs and is showing no signs of slowing down. They won’t be a contender this year but there are some pieces in place for the future. Minnesota was expected to be one of the worst, if not the worst team in the league but they have been extremely surprising. The biggest reason for their success is their very much improved pitching staff. Phil Hughes has been one of the best signings of the offseason and should be finding his way onto the All-Star team in his home park. Many people wrote him off after his disappointing stint with the Yankees but his stuff and his attitude were never the problem. He was a fly ball pitcher playing in a sandbox at Yankee Stadium. Now that he is pitching in a bigger park and one much more pitcher friendly he is thriving. The Indians are technically in the AL Central race but thanks to an extremely inconsistent offense I don’t see them going to the postseason this year. The Kansas City Royals have gotten themselves right in the middle of the division race and could very well win it thanks to an excellent pitching staff and excellent defense. They do however need to hit better if they want to stay in the thick of things, especially for power. They’ve done better lately with the power numbers after they were nonexistent to start the season but still need to improve. I don’t see any kind of dramatic trade deadline move from them but they were my preseason pick to win the division and I’m going to stick with it. The Tigers are a very unusual team. They are good there’s no question about that, but this year seems to be a year in which they are the most beatable they’ve been in a while. Justin Verlander has been terribly inconsistent, they have the worst bullpen in the game, and they get no production from the shortstop position. Despite all of that though, with guys like Scherzer and Sanchez and bats like Miguel Cabrera’s, Ian Kinsler’s and Victor Martinez’s this team isn’t missing out on the postseason. Whether they win the division or grab one of the two wild card spots this is a playoff team. One or two minor bullpen tweaks will be what decides their fate and whether they raise another division banner or are forced to play a one and done wildcard game.

AL WEST

-If the AL East has been the most mediocre division and the AL Central the most competitive, the AL West may very well be the most fun. Things aren’t necessarily shaking out the way many predicted but these teams from top to bottom are great to watch. The Houston Astros are still the worst team in the division but with call ups of Springer and Singleton and the development of guys like Altuve, Castro, Dominguez, Keuchel, and Cosart, fans are starting to see what all the hype was about when the farm system was being rebuilt. I wholeheartedly believe this team will dominate this division in 2-3 years but for now they can take solace in the fact that they are much more competitive and no team is treating them like a doormat anymore. No team in baseball this year and possibly in recent history has been hit harder by injuries than the Texas Rangers. Whether it be their rotation, their big money run producer, or the bullpen, there is no area of the team that has gone unscathed. Ron Washington has done a great job with the hand he was dealt and deserves a lot of credit but this team has to chalk this season up as a loss and look to come back strong next season. The Seattle Mariners are an improved team thanks to Robinson Cano and his hitting prowess, even if that hitting hasn’t resulted in many home runs. The pitching is good as usual with rotation anchors Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma pitching well. The bullpen is improved but the story as always with Seattle is the offense. They play in the Sahara Desert a.k.a. Safeco Field, where offense goes to die, and it doesn’t help that other than Cano there isn’t one above average hitter or threat in the lineup. Their pitching will keep them in a lot of games and I could see them lasting until the end for the second wild card spot but they will come up short. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim finally have a respectable rotation and a healthy team around Mike Trout so it should be no surprise then that they are winning. Like the Tigers this team suffers from an abysmal bullpen, so look for them to be very active come the trade deadline and after with waiver wire deals. Garrett Richards has been spectacular this year and is overtaking Jered Weaver as the best pitcher on the staff and the ace of the staff. I see these Angels making the improvements they need and grabbing one of the wild card spots. A matchup against the Tigers in the one and done game is a very good possibility and a game no fan should miss if it happens. Last but not least we have the best and most entertaining team in all of baseball the Oakland Athletics. Despite losing their top two starters in spring training the A’s have amassed the best record in baseball and have an unheard of run differential of +135. The next closest team, the San Francisco Giants, trails them by 86 runs. I predicted before the season started that not only would Oakland win the AL West again but would go on to win the World Series. They’ve done nothing to make me sway from that decision and have actually made my belief even stronger. Oakland is clearly the best and deepest team in baseball and the only thing that can stop them is themselves.

Once the trade deadline passes the picture in the American League will become that much clearer. As of right now very few teams are actually out of the race but that will change soon. Putting my prognosticating hat on once more I see things ending like this:

AL East-Toronto

AL Central-Kansas City

AL West-Oakland

Wild Cards-Detroit and Anaheim

 

From there I see Oakland getting over their Detroit hump of recent years just as it took the Pistons time to get past the Celtics and the Bulls to get past the Pistons back in the late 80’s and early 90’s of the NBA. Due to better pitching and better defense I see Kansas City making a real statement in their first playoff appearance in 29 years and taking care of business against Toronto and reaching the ALCS. The Cinderella story ends there though as Oakland will be too much for Kansas City to handle and the Athletics make the World Series for the first time since 1990 and the days of the Bash Brothers.

We will be back tomorrow to take a look at the National League and how things will shake out in the Senior Circuit. Who will win their divisions? Who will face Oakland in the World Series? Check in tomorrow for those answers and more.