NL Central

2013 NL Central Preview: Anything Can and Probably Will Happen

 

Final Standings

St. Louis Cardinals 88-74

Cincinnati Reds 84-78

Milwaukee Brewers 80-82

Pittsburgh Pirates 78-84

Chicago Cubs 70-92

 

            On paper the NL Central would probably not win any arguments for best teams or most talented compared to the rest of the league. However, what they do have is the potential for a crazy down to the wire finish that involves four teams. Legitimate arguments can be made for all the teams in this division, with the exception of the Cubs, to finish anywhere from first to fourth. The Cardinals have a good mix of veterans and young guys, and also have a guy who could very well win the MVP if he can live up to the hype and stay healthy, but more on him later. The Reds have a great bullpen, good starting pitching, and the trio of Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, and Joey Votto. They’re a leadoff hitter away from a long playoff run. The Brewers will be relying on a lot of young arms to help out their great offense in sustaining success and have a completely remodeled bullpen. The Pirates ended last season on a tailspin and will be coming into the season with a bitter taste in their mouth and a hunger to prove the first half last year was no fluke. The Cubs, for this year, will be the same old Cubs but dare I say there is some hope and promise in their future with Theo Epstein making the decisions?

 

1.  St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)

The Cardinals have finished with a playoff spot in three of the last four years and I see this year being no different. They lose a workhorse in Chris Carpenter, who most likely is forced to retire due to injury and that hurts them but they have enough ammo left in the gun. Adam Wainwright will be the veteran presence and ace of the staff. He is coming off a year in which he came back from an injury himself and didn’t perform up to expectations, but as a veteran he knows how to get it done even with a loss in velocity and/or movement. Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia are two good starters and the rest of the rotation will eventually be filled with young prospects, even if it isn’t right out of the gate. Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal will be names to remember. The bullpen will be one of the better ones in baseball led by closer Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs who had great seasons last year.

On offense the Cardinals have a great veteran group that will help lead them back into the postseason. Losing Rafael Furcal will hurt some but there’s enough talent here to make up for it. Guys like Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, and Carlos Beltran will have good to great seasons as per usual, but the key figure in this whole season for the team is Allen Craig. Craig has had a history of injuries in his career, but when healthy and playing he tears the cover off the ball and puts up great numbers. I personally feel this will be his year; he’ll stay healthy and will be an MVP candidate.

 

2.  Cincinnati Reds (84-78)

 

Cincinnati pitching won’t jump out at anyone as a dominant or top staff in baseball but they hold a very special distinction as far as last season goes. They are the only team to have the same five starters pitch every game of the year. They had a lot of luck as far as guys not getting hurt and it helped them garner the second most wins in the majors, but this is a different year and they will have a far different result. If Aroldis Chapman is moved to the rotation it hurts the bullpen, yet if he stays the closer, they will have to go out and find another starter. My personal opinion is that he needs to be the closer because he will be much more effective in the role, and they should have signed that other pitcher yesterday. Asking a pitching staff to overachieve two years in a row is an almost impossible task and one Cincinnati will not accomplish.

 

The Reds haven’t had a good leadoff hitter in forever and maybe next year Billy Hamilton will be that guy, but this year Shin Shoo Choo will most certainly not be. Asking him to bat leadoff in addition to playing centerfield when he’s more of a right fielder will lead to a bad marriage with horrible results. The three headed monster of Bruce, Phillips, and Votto won’t be enough to save this team. Another factor will be Dusty Baker. I feel last year this team won 97 games in spite of his influence as opposed to because of it. Sounds crazy to say that a team that won 97 games could use a managerial change but I think it would be the best thing for them, especially come playoff time when Baker’s inabilities really shine through.

 

3.  Milwaukee Brewers (80-82)

Milwaukee is a team on the rise, but isn’t quite there just yet. They have the right pieces but the inexperience of the starting staff will hurt this year. Guys playing in their first full seasons such as Mike Fiers will be able to build on their seasons this year and bring the Brewers home a division title next year; but that’s a story for another day. The completely revamped bullpen is a good thing considering how terrible their bullpen was last year, and they can hopefully get a rebound year out of John Axford who blew nine saves and had an ERA over 4.50.

When discussing the offense of the Brewers, the conversation must begin with Ryan Braun. Quite possibly the best all-around player in baseball, Braun has put up monster numbers and won himself an MVP, but has also found himself linked to steroids twice, though never been caught using any substances. If something substantial were to come out and he was suspended it will kill the season for this team, so let’s hope he’s been doing all this the natural way. Surrounding Braun on offense is a bevy of players who will never win any MVPs but are solid fundamental baseball players. Norichika Aoki came onto the scene last season and had himself a very good year hitting for an average of .288 and also collecting 37 doubles. Rickie Weeks started off the year horribly in the first half but picked up momentum after the All-Star break. If the Brewers want to be successful, they will need him to come out and produce, especially in the absence of Corey Hart. Jean Segura, a top prospect in the Brewers farm system came up last season and played in 45 games. He was inconsistent but showed flashes of why he was a top prospect. If he can continue to develop and hit for a better average the Brewers will be set at shortstop for years to come.

 

4.  Pittsburgh Pirates (78-84)

Pittsburgh started out last year with guns blazing running off to a record of 67-54 as of August 19^th, but finished with a record of 12-29 from that point on. Pittsburgh is a franchise starved for success and one can hope that the Pirates will come out looking to vindicate that record before the tailspin and finish much stronger. As much as I and the fans of the Pirates want to believe that, there is just too much history here to think otherwise. The signing of Russell Martin will definitely help the pitching staff and holding runners, as Pittsburgh was abysmal last year in that category. Martin has a great percentage for his career in throwing out potential base stealers. Andrew McCutchen will need to have another spectacular season in order for this team to even be competitive never mind compete for a division title or playoff spot. Starling Marte got some experience in the majors last year and can be a spark plug for the team. Neil Walker had a good season but the team is going to need him to hit for more power.

The pitching staff is the bread and butter of this team. The starting staff, led by A.J. Burnett will need to improve last year’s production. Burnett may be the staff ace but the most important pitcher very well may be James McDonald. McDonald in the first half won nine of his seventeen starts and compiled an ERA of 2.37 but finished the year with a record of 12-8 and had an ERA of 4.21. If he can have a season that reflects his first half and Burnett can pitch well they can make for a very good combination. The bullpen is a good one, but the closer spot could be a bit of a wildcard. Jason Grilli takes over for Joel Hanrahan, and only has six career saves on his resume, but he’s a veteran and is coming off a stint as the closer for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic. If we learned anything about Canadian players it’s that they know how to fight, and I expect Grilli to do just that and have some success as a closer.

 

5.  Chicago Cubs (70-92)

Chicago doesn’t have much hope this year but the future on the North Side of the Second City is a bright one. The core of this team is young but very good. Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, and Brett Jackson will take the next steps in their development and team can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel on Alfonso Soriano’s contract. Hope is not a word usually associated with Chicago unless politics are involved but it fits this Cubs team thanks to Theo Epstein taking over the reins.

The pitching staff and bullpen definitely need some work and will be the downfall of this team this year, but the signing of Edwin Jackson will prove to be a phenomenal one. Carlos Marmol needs to go and another closer has to be brought in. He’s probably singlehandedly responsible for as many heart attacks in the summer as the cold weather is in the winter. When the arms can compare to or match the bats there might just be a parade on the North Side afterall.