Almost Halfway Home Part 2

Almost Halfway Home

 

Yesterday we took a look at the American League and where things stand at the almost halfway point of the season. Today we will take a look at the National League. The NL in my opinion is a lot easier to figure out as there are six teams, two in each division, that are clearly better than the rest of the pack. The five playoff teams will all come from this group with one being left out in the cold. Let’s take a look at what’s happened thus far and what to expect going forward.

 

NL EAST

-Something about the East divisions is breeding mediocrity this season. Every team is still in the hunt but that unfortunately isn’t because of skill, more so because the two teams who are clearly the best in the division have failed to distance themselves. Come the second half I see that changing and Washington and Atlanta will separate themselves from the pack. The Nationals have dealt with a myriad of injuries but they are starting to get back the reinforcements needed. Gio Gonzalez just returned from a DL stint, Bryce Harper will be beginning his rehab assignment soon, and Wilson Ramos should be back any day now. Matt Williams will be faced with a tough challenge when his squad returns to full strength as he’s going to need to find at bats for a lot of guys and positions for them to play. Ryan Zimmerman has moved to left field and played well, and is also much more comfortable out there, allowing Anthony Rendon to move to third base (his natural position). When Harper comes back what do you do with Zimmerman? Playing him at third is a liability because of his arm and also moving Rendon back to second midway through the year could hurt his performance. So if you don’t make that move do you play Zimmerman at first? Adam LaRoche has been one of the best hitters on the team and taking him out of the lineup would be insane. Williams says it’s a good problem to have but I’ll be honest, I don’t want to be in his shoes making those decisions. Atlanta just recently lost their third pitcher to a season ending injury but luckily for them they sent Alex Wood down to the minors to get stretched out with the intention of starting. The decision to sit Dan Uggla despite his pay has finally been made and Tommy LaStella has been awesome. Giving them much better hitting and defense along with a top of the order spark plug has breathed some new life into the Braves. Speaking of awesome, Evan Gattis has played out of this world and should be making the trip to Minnesota for the All-Star Game. We all knew Gattis could swing the bat and be an offensive force but the question remained how he would perform defensively when catching every day. Well he’s passed that test and put those questions to rest. Is he an all world defender? Of course not, but he is playing well enough that he isn’t a liability to the team in the field. The Miami Marlins have been a pleasant surprise thanks in large part to a healthy Giancarlo Stanton and run producing machine Casey McGehee. Also, despite losing all world starter Jose Fernandez the rotation has been solid. Recent call up Andrew Heaney has shown that he is a player to watch in the future and pairing him up with a healthy Jose Fernandez will make this team a contender. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are both a non-contending mess so we’re going to kill two birds with one stone here. Both teams need changes at GM and a radical shift in drafting and development. The Mets future is brighter due to all their pitching talent but that talent needs to step up on the big league level and produce. Ruben Amaro Jr. somehow still has a job which is an amazing feat considering how terrible he has been as of late. However, given how terrible and dirty the city of Philly and its fans are it’s a good thing to see them suffer through this bad stretch. 

 

NL CENTRAL

-Coming into the season everyone predicted that the St. Louis Cardinals would run away with the NL Central and that it would be their division to lose. The Milwaukee Brewers heard this and collectively said “not so fast.” With excellent pitching, the return of Ryan Braun, and the national breakout of Jonathan Lucroy, the Brewers looked poised to take the division and leave St. Louis fighting for a wild card spot. The Cardinals are too good to miss the playoffs but all season they’ve sort of sputtered along not being able to go on a run like we are accustomed to seeing from them. Recent injuries and DL stints for Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia won’t help matters but there is enough depth here to keep them afloat for the time being. The Pittsburgh Pirates were the story of the season last year but this year has been a completely different story. The starting pitching has been nowhere near the level it was a year ago and neither is Jason Grilli who has been demoted out of the closer role due to ineffectiveness. The Pirates have found a lineup fixture for years to come in uber prospect Gregory Polanco. Polanco is going to be a fantastic player and will form arguably the best outfield in all of baseball with Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen. Cincinnati has been a disappointment as well, underperforming compared to recent years. The only bright spot for them this year has been Cy Young frontrunner Johnny Cueto. With his Luis Tiant delivery and ability to get guys out despite pitching in the very hitter friendly Great American Ballpark, Cueto is very comfortably in the lead for the hardware come season’s end. The Chicago Cubs have stated all along that next year was the year they were going to spend money and have the kids in the farm system ready to play so this year was another throwaway for the Wrigley faithful. However, odds are the team will be trading both Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, which should fetch them some decent returns to add to the mix. Add in the continued improvement of Anthony Rizzo, and the forthcoming promotion of masher Kris Bryant and the hope is there in Chicago.

 

NL WEST

-Before the season began I predicted the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the NL West and be a dark horse contender for the World Series. Boy, I couldn’t have been more wrong. Thanks to terrible play by everyone not named Goldschmidt or Montero that isn’t going to happen. The Diamondbacks were hit by the injury bug also but so have plenty of other teams that are playing through it much better. They gave up a lot of the wrong talent for guys they described as “gritty” fitting the mold of overrated manager Kirk Gibson and it has blown up in their face. Colorado is getting an MVP like season from Troy Tulowitzki who has managed to stay healthy. Their offensive numbers at home are unfathomable but their pitching numbers at home or on the road are not good at all. Tulowitzki has enough talent to keep the team relevant down the stretch but getting a wild card spot won’t happen. The San Diego Padres just recently fired their GM Josh Byrnes and with good reason because this team cannot hit and its “star” players would welcome the Mendoza Line with open arms. This is a team that may need to take the Houston Astros approach and just gut the whole team and farm system in order to start over. The two teams left in the division and virtual locks for the postseason (Giants and Dodgers), are going to be involved in a dogfight throughout the summer for control of the division. San Francisco has performed well above expectations, whereas the Dodgers have performed well below expectations but there is so much talent, especially on the pitching end for Los Angeles that they can still manage to stay in the race. Buster Posey has come to life as of late and Michael Morse has been a great signing for San Fran. GM Brian Sabean is known to be aggressive and go all in if he has to at the trade deadline (see Beltran, Carlos), and the results are mixed but the effort deserves applause. Look for this team to be a contender for David Price if Tampa trades him, which I think they will. Yasiel Puig is proving he is not a one year wonder and he is the barometer of the Dodgers through and through. As Puig goes, this team goes. They have great pitching and are starting to get positive contributions from Matt Kemp and Dee Gordon who looks like he has figured things out and is showing the talent we’ve all known was there.

As far as how I see things playing out in the National League, I truly do think it comes down to the six teams mentioned above. Five of them will make up the playoff field, it’s just a question of where they finish. One very good team will be left out but the race down the stretch will be an exciting one for sure.

NL East- Washington

NL Central- Milwaukee

NL West- Los Angeles

Wild Cards- San Francisco and St. Louis (just barely over Atlanta)

I see the Cardinals taking the Wild Card Game and moving on to face the Dodgers. Los Angeles will defeat St. Louis in the NLDS and Milwaukee will take care of Washington in a very tough hard fought series. The Dodgers will make the World Series an all West Coast affair and go on to face Oakland in the Fall Classic. The Dodgers would be a tough matchup for Oakland but I have to stick with my original prediction and say the Oakland Athletics will be taking home the Commissioner’s Trophy.