AL East

2013 AL East Preview: Lots of Questions Surrounding the Most Competitive Division in Baseball

The American League East over the last few years has been considered the toughest division in baseball by many pundits, including yours truly. Since 2007 the division has sent a wildcard team into the playoffs. Although the addition of a second wild card team beginning last season takes some of the luster off that accomplishment. This season will be no exception when it comes to competitiveness. The last place team in the division could very well finish with a better record than the fourth place finishers in the other divisions. If there’s one thing this division knows it’s beating up on everyone else. Against all other teams last year the division went a combined 240-210, better than every other division against all competition. Now let’s take a look at all the teams in the order I see them finishing the year.

Final Standings

Tampa Bay 90-72

New York Yankees 88-74

Toronto Blue Jays 84-78

Boston Red Sox 79-83

Baltimore Orioles 77-85

 

1.  Tampa Bay Rays (90-72)

The team that never seems to go away despite the personnel losses will be back and as good as ever I feel. They match their win total from a year ago but this time it will be good enough for a division win and a playoff spot as opposed to a third place finish. They may not have as much star power as last year but with Joe “The Mad Scientist” Maddon at the helm the team is in good hands. Maddon is a phenomenal tactician and there’s arguably no manager in baseball that gets more out of his players. His work mixing and matching the bullpen according to matchups is extraordinary, and his laid back approach and themed road trips make him a manager that guys love playing for. He is never one to shy away from a hit and run or shift his defense in a way never seen before, but that is what makes him unique. He realizes his team’s strengths and weaknesses and plays to those strengths as well as anyone.

Trading away an innings eater like James Shields will cause a slight step back for the staff but with young guys like Hellickson, Moore, Cobb, and the reigning AL Cy Young Award Winner David Price, there’s a lot of talent left in the rotation. The bullpen certainly isn’t otherworldly but there are a lot of serviceable arms including the closer Fernando Rodney who finished second in the American League in saves. Kelly Johnson will start the year at second base while Ben Zobrist will play either left or right field and Matt Joyce controls the other outfield spot. This will not last long though as stud outfielder Wil Myers is waiting in the wings. Tampa will keep him in Triple A to start the year to continue his outfield development as he only has 93 games of experience playing there, but his offensive talents won’t keep him down long. Tampa will only be able to delay the arbitration clock for so long.

 

2.  New York Yankees (88-74)

First things first, there’s something I have to get out of the way. I am a diehard pinstripe supporting Yankee fan. With that said, my being a fan has not inflated what I feel this team will do this season. Everyone can point to Granderson’s injury to start the season, Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli being the catching tandem, Kevin Youkilis joining the team and not thinking he can help since, you know, he came from Boston, and most importantly what will Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera contribute coming off their serious injuries. The Yankee haters are abundant enough, but for the first time in a long time, the Yankee faithful are echoing the same sentiments. I’m here to tell all Yankee fans not to worry because what we do have is a plethora of good, experienced pitching that will carry this team.

A rotation fronted by CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, and core four member Andrew Eugene Pettitte will be more than enough to carry this team, and that’s before throwing in names like Hughes, Nova, Phelps and Pineda. Now granted Nova and Hughes had mediocre to poor seasons last year, but the mistakes are correctable and they can and should rebound. Nova has great breaking stuff but he does need to better command and control his fastball, which at his young age is something that can be done. Hughes had some bad luck with the long ball last year finishing in a tie for second place in home runs given up with 35. Pitching at Yankee Stadium when you’re a fly ball pitcher can be a recipe for disaster, but Hughes actually performed better at home than he did on the road. Add in the extra incentive of this being a contract year for Hughes and he has all the motivation to be better this year. In addition to some good starting pitching the Yankees have a good bullpen that Joey Binders maximizes well. Many may accuse him of over managing which, of course he is guilty of at times, but what manager isn’t. The arms will keep the Yankees in the race.

The offense will take a hit for sure. These aren’t your daddies Yankees scoring over 800 runs in a season but this is far from an impotent lineup. With talent such as Gardner, Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, Youkilis, Ichiro, and Granderson when he comes back, this team cannot be counted out. Look for the Yankees to be more dependent on small ball and less reliant on the home run, which should be music to diehard fans ears. Hit and runs, bunting over runners, and straight steals with Gardner and Ichiro will be a big part of the team’s game this year. Add to that walks and pitch counts being about as high as usual if not more so with the addition of Youkilis and a full season of Gardner, and this is a team who may not be as “sexy” as usual, but it doesn’t mean they can’t be effective.

3. Toronto Blue Jays (84-78)

The biggest players in the game of offseason movers and shakers are banking on their aggressive methods to catapult them back to the top of the division and a playoff spot after a long drought of twenty years. Vegas oddsmakers have installed the Blue Jays as favorites to not only win the AL East but also the pennant and World Series. To say expectations are high in Maple Leaf Country is an understatement. I however, feel these expectations won’t be reached as there are too many questions surrounding this team to consider them a lock for anything.

The addition of R.A. Dickey was a great move as he will be an innings eater and a stable force atop the rotation. The often overlooked Mark Buehrle will do the same from the left side providing a good 1-2 punch. The rest of the rotation however is filled with question marks. Josh Johnson is always good when healthy, but that’s the thing about him, he can never seem to stay healthy. Ricky Romero was atrocious last season and has never been a great pitcher, and Brandon Morrow also has an injury history and a strikeout rate that declined drastically over the past two seasons. In addition to the rotation question marks the bullpen is also suspect. There are no arms that put fear into a hitter because they throw hard or have great stuff that’s tough to hit. Toronto needs to hope they aren’t involved in a lot of bullpen games so that down the stretch the wear and tear on the arms won’t hurt them.

When talking about the Toronto offense there are some questions there as well. Can Jose Reyes, a player with a history of leg problems, be dependable enough playing 91 of his games on artificial turf? Besides the 81 home games, the Jays play 10 games at Tropicana Field in Tampa. Jose Bautista is a great player and should put up some good numbers now that he has protection in the lineup with Edwin Encarnacion, who is coming off a career year. Other than those two players and the questions surrounding Reyes, can this team count on a clean Melky Cabrera to produce anywhere near as well as he did when cheating? Can they turn their free swinging ways around and become more patient at the plate? I don’t think they can but if I’m wrong, which wouldn’t be too surprising, and things break right for them, they very well could be the best team in the game and hoisting the Commissioner’s trophy come October.

4.  Boston Red Sox (79-83)

The chicken and beer boys from Beantown are back and under new management this year. However, they will face the same result as last season in that they won’t be making a playoff appearance. They can look forward to a fourth place division finish as opposed to last place if my predictions hold up, so there’s at least that. John Farrell is back, now managing, after previously being the team’s pitching coach from 2007-2010. He’s a much better fit for the team than Bobby Valentine was, and these players will definitely respond much better to him and play much better for him. There’s a lot of work that needs to be done with this team and they could be fighting for the division title again in a few years but for this year they’ll have to make due with marginal improvement.

 

The addition of Joel Hanrahan could pay off as an excellent move; it all just depends on how he handles the pressure of the Boston media. He’s a very good closer, but many good players have wilted to the pressures of playing in Boston. As far as the rest of the team, they will go as far as the pitching staff and Jacoby Ellsbury take them. The only problem with that is the amount of injury prone and or inconsistent players they’ll be asking to carry them. John Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey have all had their fair share of time on the disabled list. Jacoby Ellsbury can be a very good player when healthy, as evidenced by his 2011 season where he finished as runner up in MVP voting, won his first Gold Glove, and won a Silver Slugger award. Mike Napoli, who signed this offseason as a free agent will benefit from the Green Monster and also not having to catch but he is a bit of a free swinger so he will rack up a good amount of strikeouts also. David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia are back and that’s all I will say about them out of pure baseball fan hatred.

5.  Baltimore Orioles (77-85)

The Baltimore Orioles were one of the biggest surprises in baseball last season. This team, which historically has done well starting out and then flamed out as the season has gone on, flipped the script and held on for the entire season and had their first playoff berth since 1997. They return virtually the same team who made that memorable September run and marched into the playoffs. The only exception, the team hopes, will be the full time return of a healthy Brian Roberts.

As evidenced by my predicting a last place finish and a sub .500 record, I feel this team will come crashing back down to Earth. They can still be somewhat competitive because there is some young talent in place but they won’t come close to a playoff spot. The season last year was memorable but the numbers this team put up could never be duplicated. They went 29-9 in one run games and 16-2 in extra-inning games, winning their last 16 straight. These numbers are astounding and show how just how mind boggling the season was.

Having a healthy Brian Roberts back will allow the team to extend the lineup and move Nick Markakis out of the leadoff spot, although it was a spot he performed admirably in. The team lacks a big time power hitting bat in the middle of the order but with guys like Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and Chris Davis they should get by well enough. Having a full season of Manny Machado’s services will only help strengthen his potential and show Charm City there is a building block for the future manning the hot corner.

The pitching is where I see the team taking the biggest step back. The young arms who burst onto the scene and the veterans who had career years will all have Buck Showalter pulling his hair out all year. Their return to normalcy will show the fluke that last year was and the Orioles will return to their rightful spot of last place.